Andy Land

NFL Picks - Week 5

Last Week: 4-9-1 Season: 24-33-3

In mourning over my recent performance, I'll post Quick Picks this week.

NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) over Miami
NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) over Tampa Bay
NY GIANTS (-4.5) over Washington
CHICAGO (-10) over Buffalo
St. Louis (-3) over GREEN BAY
CAROLINA (-8) over Cleveland
INDIANAPOLIS (-18) over Tennessee (can't believe I'm doing that)
Detroit (+6.5) over MINNESOTA
Kansas City (-3.5) over ARIZONA
SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) over Oakland
JACKSONVILLE (-7) over NY Jets
PHILADELPHIA (-2) over Dallas
SAN DIEGO (-3.5) over Pittsburgh
DENVER (-4) over Baltimore

NFL Picks - Week 4

Last Week: 4-8-2 Season: 20-24-2

ATLANTA (-7) over Arizona

Last week = fluke. Oh, and the Cards can't make up their mind on who to start. That never helps.

CAROLINA (-7) over New Orleans

I'm not sure about making this team a 7-point favorite against the 3-0 Saints. But the Letdown Factor is definitely at play here, along with the Monday Night Game Followed By a Road Game Corollary. And if you look at it, the Panthers should have won last week more like 34-7 instead of 26-24. They turned the ball over three times in their own territory, which isn't likely to happen again. I think the Panthers are going to win, but I wouldn't be shocked if they lost. However, this is a must-win game for the Panthers, who'd fall three games out of first with a loss.

This is all a roundabout way of saying that Carolina almost always wins must-win games. And this one will be another one.

Minnesota (+1) over BUFFALO

Was that the real J.P. Losman last week...or the real one two weeks before?

My bet's the former.

San Diego (-2.5) over BALTIMORE

The Sports Guy ranked the Chargers No. 1 in the league in his column this week. I'm not sure I agree with him. But I do think the Bolts are more than good enough to win this game against a bad offense.

Miami (-3.5) over HOUSTON

I don't see any reason to pick the Texans until they win.

TENNESSEE (+9) over Dallas

A key rule in on the spread picking: Be leery of giving more than a touchdown to a home underdog when the road team's wide receiver may have tried to kill himself last week.

San Francisco (+7) over KANSAS CITY

A month ago I picked the Chiefs to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Now I'm picking them to lose to the NFL's worst 2005 QB at home.

Welcome to the NFL.

Indianapolis (-9) over NY JETS

Another rout. Is it just me or do the Colts never seem to play more than two tough games in the first five games of any given season?

ST. LOUIS (-5.5) over Detroit

It's stupid how close the Lions are to being 0-16 right now.

Jacksonville (-3) over WASHINGTON

If the Jags are for real, they'll rebound from last week's tough loss in Indy to beat a decent Skins team on the road.

New England (+6) over CINCINNATI

Only the Patriots can convince me to pick them on the road against a playoff team with their joke of a receiving corps.

Cleveland (-3) over OAKLAND

A fellow poster of mine on North Side Baseball said it best: "The Raiders should never be getting less than 7 points against anyone."

CHICAGO (-3) over Seattle

This was picked for Seattle before Alexander was struck by the Madden Curse.

Green Bay (+11) over PHILADELPHIA

Next week is T.O. This week is way too many points being given to GB.

Visit me at

http://theswivelarm.blogspot.com

to see what I'm thinking.

NFL Picks - Week 3

Last Week: 10-6 Season: 16-16

Chicago (-3) over MINNESOTA

Obviously he's not really this good, but Rex Grossman is leading the NFL in passer rating after two weeks. I'm not going to stray away from that, especially since the Vikes were one stupid lateral away from losing to the offensively challenged Panthers.

PITTSBURGH (-1.5) over Cincinnati

I have to think that Ben Roethlisberger is not going to get himself into a shutout again this week.

BUFFALO (-5.5) over NY Jets

Is it just me, or do the Bills look pretty decent so far?

Carolina (-3) over TAMPA BAY

Who would have thought a month ago that this game would be the Toilet Bowl? Chris Simms has been absolutely embarrassing, which gives Carolina's defense the edge. Steve Smith practicing also helps.

Green Bay (+7) over DETROIT

My upset pick of the week. Somehow I think neither of these teams is good enough to beat the other, even with the Lions starting a competent QB for a change.

Wahington (-4) over HOUSTON

This is just a gimme. The Skins only giving 4 points to the Texans? I don't care if the game is in Mario Williams's backyard, you still don't make that line.

INDIANAPOLIS (-7) over Jacksonville

Another rule of wagering: Don't go against Peyton Manning at home in the regular season. Even against a very good defense.

MIAMI (-11) over Tennessee

I know the Dolphins are really bad and everything...but the Titans...I mean...wow.

Baltimore (-6.5) over CLEVELAND

If they keep playing defense like this, Baltimore won't need an offense.

St. Louis (+4.5) over ARIZONA

I still like the Rams, but let's try to fix this problem, shall we? I don't need to be losing games on this.

Philadelphia (-6) over SAN FRANCISCO

I know the Eagles are coming off a terrible loss, but this is the 49ERS!!!!

NY Giants (+3.5) over SEATTLE

I just don't know about the Seahawks this year. I just don't. On paper, they should have the best team in the league, but they don't impress me.

NEW ENGLAND (-7) over Denver

That sound you hear is Broncos fans getting their Jay Cutler jerseys from every store ever.

Atlanta (-3.5) over NEW ORLEANS

Emotion or no emotion, the Falcons look like world-beaters right now.

NFL Picks - Week 2

Last Week / Season: 6-10

Ok, so my tradition of sucking it up in week 1 continues. On to the picks:

Oakland (+12) over BALTIMORE

This violates my rule of not picking a team you don't think is going to win straight up, but I don't care. I don't think Baltimore is anywhere near as good as they played last week in Tampa, and I don't think Oakland is near as bad as they played last week against San Diego.

New Orleans (-2) over GREEN BAY

Chalk up a successful Reggie Bush debut, and an even better Drew Brees Saints debut. Now I wish I had picked him instead of waiting on "sleeper" Trent Green.

And let's hear it for Brett Favre! He's gotta be loving the fact that he's an underdog, at home, against a team unanimously picked to finish last in the NFC South this season. Good work, Brett. Keep it coming.

INDIANAPOLIS (-13.5) over Houston

There's only one rule in picking against the spread in the NFL - well, other than not picking underdogs unless you think they can win the game. And that rule is "Never, ever, ever, EVER pick against Peyton Manning in a thoroughly meaningless game - especially against Houston".

Buffalo (+6.5) over MIAMI

Perhaps I'm overreacting a little to the Fins' play last week, but if you can't stop Chaz Batch, or get decent play out of your big offseason pickup, you're probably not in very good shape. As for the Bills, I honestly probably know less about them than any other team in the league. They're that nondescript.

MINNESOTA (+1.5) over Carolina

Steve Smith is supposed to be out once again having not practiced yet. Dan Morgan is out with a concussion. Travelle Wharton (yeah, he sucks, but he's still a starter) is out for the season with torn leg ligaments. And we haven't even gotten to DeShaun Foster's inevitable injury yet. Looks like for the third straight season, my favorite team will be submarined by injuries. It's like a broken record.

Tampa Bay (+5.5) over ATLANTA

This one defies all logic, but the Buccaneers have some kind of spell over Michael Vick, and I'm not willing to go against that until things change, much like I'm not willing to pick the Colts in the playoffs or pick St. Louis to beat any good defense.

NY GIANTS (+3) over Philadelphia

The Giants are the sleeper now in the NFC. With Carolina knocked out by injuries (again), and Seattle now the unanimous favorite to win the NFC, the Giants are the ones lurking. They're a very good football team, and I have a feeling that, despite the fact they have a QB named Manning, they're going places.

CHICAGO (-8.5) over Detroit

I'm not gonna say the Bears are going to suddenly become a good offense, but...they looked pretty darn good against the Pack. Then again, it's the Pack.

CINCINNATI (-10) over Cleveland

Johnson and "who's your mama" run wild against the Dawg Pound.

St. Louis (-3) over SAN FRANCISCO

A slam dunk pick. Alex Smith still sucks. (Then again, remember what I said last week about Pittsburgh-Miami.)

SEATTLE (-7) over Arizona

Since I have nothing to say here, how about that new Cardinals Stadium? It's absolutely gorgeous.

DENVER (-10.5) over Kansas City

On the one hand, Jake Plummer. On the other hand, Damon Friggin Huard. It's like Sophie's Choice. Please run well, LJ, for my sake.

New England (-6) over NY JETS

How sweet would it be if the Jets got Brady Quinn? The talking heads would be obsessed with him, being on a New York team.

SAN DIEGO (-11.5) over Tennessee

Philip Rivers. Told ya. Oh yeah, and good luck trading away your best of your three quarterbacks, Fisher. Really a solid move.

Washington (+6) over DALLAS

Hello, Tony Romo.

Pittsburgh (-1.5) over JACKSONVILLE

I'm sorry, Steelers. I owe you an apology and I won't doubt you again until you give me a much better reason to.

Because the person this entry refers to has accounts on other outlets I could use for this, it's only here.

I feel REAL good about something, with someone. We've been talking a lot the last few days...I think she knows, for Myspace-related reasons, that I'm interested in her but continues to talk to me. That's always good news.

That said, a few months from now I will do something stupid to blow it with her, just like I have done with any girl that has had even a remote interest in me in my life...heck, I've done that with many girls who didn't have an interest but might have if I hadn't acted like a 13-year-old schoolboy with a crush around them all the time. This is life when you've never had a girlfriend (and speaking of that, I pledge never to get drunk again, ever. I did one time and did something stupid that I now regret). You assume everything will go wrong...and it usually does.

Hopefully that will change.

It's time to revive an old tradition - Year Three of my NFL picks against the spread. I believe you all know the rules. First, my predictions for the season:

AFC East
1. NE (seed: 2)
2. Miami (WC1)
3. Buffalo
4. NY Jets

AFC North
1. Pittsburgh (seed: 3)
2. Cincinnati
3. Cleveland
4. Baltimore

AFC South
1. Indianapolis (seed: 1)
2. Jacksonville
3. Houston
4. Tennessee

AFC West
1. Kansas City (seed: 4)
2. San Diego (WC2)
3. Denver
4. Oakland

NFC East
1. Dallas (seed: 4)
2. Philadelphia (WC2)
3. NY Giants
4. Washington

NFC North
1. Chicago (seed: 3)
2. Minnesota
3. Detroit
4. Green Bay

NFC South
1. Carolina (seed: 1)
2. Tampa Bay
3. New Orleans
4. Atlanta

NFC West
1. Seattle (seed: 2)
2. St. Louis (WC1)
3. Arizona
4. San Francisco

Playoffs

PITTSBURGH over San Diego, KANSAS CITY over Miami; Philadelphia over CHICAGO, DALLAS over St. Louis

Kansas City over INDIANAPOLIS, Pittsburgh over NEW ENGLAND; CAROLINA over Philadelphia, SEATTLE over Dallas

Kansas City over PITTSBURGH; CAROLINA over Seattle

Super Bowl XLI: Panthers 34, Chiefs 28

Call me biased, I don't care. On to the picks:

NFL Picks - Week 1

Miami (+1) over PITTSBURGH

Kind of a slam dunk actually. Charlie Batch is a decent backup, but not good enough to beat another playoff-caliber team at full strength.

TAMPA BAY (-3) over Baltimore

In case you didn't get it from the predictions, I think the Steve McNair Experiment is going to be one of the biggest train wrecks in the history of football. I just don't believe the guy has much left in the tank. Tampa usually starts strong, especially if they're against a weak opponent.

New Orleans (+3) over CLEVELAND

The Saints will be the most improved team in the league this season. Write it down. In ink. I like the Browns this season, but Charlie Frye will need some more time before he blossoms.

CAROLINA (-6) over Atlanta

The Panthers drafted Thomas Davis exclusively to be a Vick-stopper, and he fulfilled that role to perfection in his rookie year as the Panthers finally broke the Vick curse. Expect it to continue as the Falcons still can't be expected to throw effectively.

Seattle (-6) over DETROIT

Everyone's talking about the "new Lions", but all I see are the same old underachievers with a better QB. It'll get them maybe 6 or 7 wins especially in the running joke that is the NFC North, but it's not going to get them further than that. Shaun Alexander has some time before being bitten by the Madden Curse.

Philadelphia (-4.5) over HOUSTON

Rant: How is it that I target Reggie Brown as my sleeper (he's Philly's best wideout but no one is talking about him), and I end up with him in almost no leagues? He is going to have a breakout season this year. Damn you and your auto-rankings, Yahoo Sports.

TENNESSEE (-3) over NY Jets

It's going to be very painful to watch the Jets this season. I mean, like, real bad. The Kellen Clemens Era begins around Week 3.

KANSAS CITY (-2.5) over Cincinnati

Probably the best matchup of opening weekend as Larry Johnson tangles with Chad Johnson. Expect a lot of points in this game.

ST. LOUIS (+3.5) over Denver

I think the Rams can surprise some people this year. Steven Jackson still has untapped potential and Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce (can you believe this guy is still in the league?) are still reliable targets. The Broncos are in for a world of trouble once the fans start clamoring for Jay Cutler, which starts about a month ago.

NEW ENGLAND (-9) over Buffalo

I'm pretty sure Bill Belichick could make 11 Deion Sanders into a cohesive defensive unit at this point.

JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) over Dallas

I'm still waiting for Byron Leftwich to just start taking over. The next generation of great MAC quarterbacks needs to begin and end with Roethlisberger, and then him. The TO Era will get off to a sloppy start.

GREEN BAY (+3.5) over Chicago

My Upset Pick of the Week. The Bears took a while to get rolling last year and I think the same will hold true this season. Green Bay is about to decompose with all the grizzled vets they have lying around, but they'll pull this one out.

ARIZONA (-7.5) over San Francisco

As the Niners draw closer and closer to Brady Quinn, they're going to start asking themselves, "Is this Alex Smith Experiment worth investing more time in, or do we pull the plug and go with a Weis-coached star? Hmmmm..."

Indianapolis (-3.5) over NY GIANTS

I suppose the networks should be billing this as a "Manning Brothers" showdown rather than a battle of QBs with a combined three playoff wins in nine seasons. That probably sounds a bit better. Colts will romp in this one.

WASHINGTON (-4.5) over Minnesota

So lemme get this straight: the Skins devote all this time and money to plucking great offensive playmakers (Portis, Randle El, Lloyd, Moss, to a lesser extent TJ Duckett) and they still start Mark Fucking Brunell at QB? Well, it'll work this week. But not much longer.

San Diego (-3) over OAKLAND

Another team that has a good shot at obtaining Brady Quinn: The Oakland Raiders. Phil Rivers is my other sleeper fantasy pick - look for him to grasp the offense pretty well and pretty quickly.

One down, 12 to go. But I was very surprised. 14-10, the Irish barely held on to beat a game GT opponent. And I have to say the Jackets impressed me. They have a very good defense and a decent offense. If it weren't for their stupid coach Gailey ignoring Calvin Johnson the entire 2nd half, my Irish would probably be out of the championship race. As it is, Darius Walker showed something, amassing a 100-yard workmanlike performance. Brady Quinn, after some struggles with the pressure in the first half, stepped up and performed well, throwing 24/38 for 246 yards, and rushing for a touchdown. It wasn't a performance befitting a national championship contender, but they got it done. Penn State is the only defense that might be better than the Techsters' outfit tonight so I am not too discouraged.

Work: My job sucks. I got a raise - to $6.25 an hour. I asked to train for box office - then the box manager just plain hates me and decides not to schedule me anymore. I'm still stuck at concession.

Sports: Well, since I last posted, the Cubs are now 9-3 against St. Louis, 33-58 against every other team in the game of baseball. Steve Smith got hurt today but isn't expected to miss any major time. My sky high hopes for Notre Dame and Ball State football have not faded.

Career: No progress. I'm doing color this fall for a local high school in Muncie, but am doomed not to go any higher due to my ill-fated decision not to join WCRD as a freshman. Just as in high school, my detriment is that I am a member of one of the most talented Tcom classes in the history of the world. I have no internship lined up for next year.

Girls: Apart from the fact that I have become much better at talking to women without embarrassing myself, thanks to me taking it upon myself to talk regularly to the few attractive ones that I work with, no real developments, until recently. An usher I work with at the theater, named Star, asked me to hang out sometime when neither of us are working - most likely Thursday. Surprising to say the least. I don't know what is to come of this.

Friends: No new ones, same old ones.

Is AWESOME right now.

Notre Dame: Is likely to be a top 5 preseason team. They have the clear favorite for the Heisman in Brady Quinn, the clear favorite for the Biletnikoff in (future Cub!) Jeff Samardzija, a great RB in Darius Walker, maybe my favorite athlete ever in Tom Zbikowski, and the best coach on the planet in Charlie Weis. I cannot possibly wait until September 2nd in Atlanta.

Carolina Panthers: Are among the NFC favorites. The Madden Curse will ruin Shaun Alexander and Seattle. Have the best wideout in the game in Steve Smith. Finally have someone else to throw to and keep Smith from being triple teamed in Keyshawn. Have DeShaun and DeAngelo at RB. Have Jake Delhomme, an uber-reliable and clutchtastic QB. Have the best D-line in recorded human history (Peppers, Rucker, Jenkins and Ma'ake Kemoeatu). Have a great secondary (Kenny Lucas and Chris Gamble are the best cover cornering twosome in the game, plus Mike Minter, Shaun Williams and rookie Richard Marshall). Have the best coach in the NFL (my biased opinion) in John Fox. I cannot possibly wait until September 10th against Atlanta.

Bulls: THE MAN...IN THE MIDDLE...6-9, FROM VIRGINIA UNION...BENNNNNNNNNNNN....WALLACE!!!!! Plus Gordon/Hinrich/Deng/Noc/Tyrus/Thabo/Allen/Sweets/Duhon. And one of the best coaches in the game in Scott Skiles. And the best GM in John Paxson.

Love. It.